Brazil to harvest record coffee crop in 2026 amid favourable weather and technological gains

Brazil is on track to achieve the largest coffee harvest in its history in 2026, according to the country’s first official crop forecast, driven by favourable climatic conditions, productivity gains and sustained technological progress in agriculture.

According to Brasil 247, a partner of TV BRICS, preliminary estimates indicate total production of 66.2 million 60-kilogram bags, marking a 17.1 per cent increase compared with the 2025 season. If confirmed, the figure will surpass the previous national record and represent the highest level ever recorded in Brazil’s official statistics.

The projected expansion reflects a combination of positive biennial cycles, improved rainfall distribution and wider adoption of advanced farming practices. The total area under production is expected to grow by 4.1 per cent, reaching approximately 1.9 million hectares, while average yields are forecast at 34.2 bags per hectare, up 12.4 per cent year on year.

The outlook is particularly strong for arabica coffee, which is more sensitive to biennial fluctuations. Output is expected to reach 44.1 million bags, an increase of 23.3 per cent, supported by physiological recovery of coffee trees and more balanced weather conditions. Conilon (robusta) production is projected at 22.1 million bags, up 6.4 per cent, with the potential to set a new record for this variety.

Regional data confirm broad-based growth across Brazil’s main producing areas. Minas Gerais, the country’s largest coffee-growing state, is forecast to harvest 32.4 million bags, benefiting from improved rainfall ahead of flowering. Sao Paulo is expected to produce 5.5 million bags, supported by yield recovery and favourable crop cycles.

Global coffee demand continues to expand, particularly in Asian markets, while worldwide inventories at the start of the 2025/26 season are projected to be the lowest in more than two decades. This supply-demand imbalance is likely to sustain price pressure, even in the face of a record Brazilian harvest.

Together, these factors position Brazil not only for a landmark production year in 2026, but also as a key stabilising force in the increasingly tight global coffee market.