Energy of future: restructuring international ties and turning towards Global South

The global energy market stands on the threshold of major transformation. Experts speak of a shift to the sixth technological paradigm and the related Industry 4.0 concept. The Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and global information networks will all require enormous energy resources. Will access to them become the key to success in the technological race?

Russian Energy Week

Russian Energy Week is the largest international discussion platform of its kind. This year, the forum brought together five thousand representatives of leading industry players from 84 countries and territories to discuss trends in the development of the fuel and energy complex.

The main theme of the forum was "The New Reality of Global Energy: Building the Future". The discussion of the future is far from abstract – its outlines are already visible. The world is on the brink of a new stage of development, marked by robotics, nano- and biotechnology, and artificial intelligence. The so-called sixth technological paradigm will require significant energy resources and changes in the existing structure of their consumption.

“According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, by 2026, the energy consumption of data centres will reach a level comparable to that of the entire Russian economy in 2024. By 2050, data centres will account for 9–10 per cent of global electricity demand,” said Valery Abramov, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Chief Researcher at the Institute for International Economic Relations Studies of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, RAS expert and RANS academician, in an exclusive interview with TV BRICS.

Experts predict that the development of artificial intelligence and, consequently, the need to process large amounts of data will increase energy consumption by 1.5 to 2 times in the future. “However, there is another view,” noted Angelika Eremeeva, Candidate of Technical Sciences and lecturer at Empress Catherine II Saint Petersburg Mining University in an interview with TV BRICS, “that new technologies will make it possible to develop energy-saving mechanisms.” Yet, she added, the practical implementation of this forecast remains uncertain, while the global demand for energy resources is already growing.

Shifting energy flows

Demand for oil continues to grow, and the so-called “peak consumption” predicted by some analysts is nowhere in sight, said Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksander Novak during Russian Energy Week. Participants also noted another key trend – the restructuring of the global energy architecture. In recent years, energy supplies have been actively shifting towards the Global South. The reason is clear: countries of the Asia-Pacific region, Africa, and Latin America are becoming new centres of development, and their demand for energy is surging.

For example, in terms of gas, growth in demand by 2040 – up 40 per cent – will be driven mainly by Asian countries, China and India, said Delcy Eloina Rodriguez Gomez, Minister of Hydrocarbons of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. “The forecasted increase in demand in the Caribbean Basin is 132 per cent. In our hemisphere, it is an exceptional region for investment,” she emphasised.

Hydrocarbon energy

Just seven years ago, there were active debates on whether hydrocarbon energy should be seen as a relic. In 2020–2021, calls for a rapid transition away from coal and oil were widespread. The International Energy Agency urged major companies to stop exploring and developing new oil and gas fields, insisting that long-term investments in hydrocarbons were unprofitable. However, this year the Agency has completely revised its stance and now highlights the need for investments in new oil and gas projects.

According to experts, the energy sector is already facing a shortage of investment in hydrocarbon extraction, creating risks of demand outpacing supply – a situation that could lead to rising energy prices. Many BRICS countries are aware of this and are showing growing interest in Russian energy resources, including oil, liquefied natural gas and coal. Demand for oil, in particular, already exceeds available volumes, most of which are under long-term contracts, noted Russian Deputy Minister of Energy Roman Marshavin in June 2025.

China has become the largest importer of Russian oil. However, BRICS countries are not only major consumers but also significant producers of hydrocarbons, accounting for three-quarters of global coal production and about 40 per cent of gas production and consumption. BRICS nations are responsible for around 40 per cent of the world’s oil output.

Alongside Russia and China, with its vast reserves of hard coal, Valery Abramov also highlights Iran as one of the energy leaders among BRICS countries.

“Iran ranks second in the world in terms of natural gas reserves. These reserves remain difficult to extract, and for its domestic needs Iran still imports gas from Qatar. Nevertheless, it remains a leading energy power,” he said.

Energy supply is a far more pressing issue for India, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia. Given their rapid economic and population growth, these countries urgently need access to energy – whether hydrocarbons or low-carbon sources.

Green energy

In September 2025, China announced plans to cut net greenhouse gas emissions by 7–10 per cent from their peak levels, raise the share of renewables in its energy mix to 30 per cent, and expand solar and wind generation capacity.

And these are not just statements. According to Ember, in the 12 months to June 2025, wind and solar energy in China generated more electricity than hydropower, nuclear and bioenergy combined.

Overall, the clean energy sector contributed US$1.9 trillion to China’s economy in 2024 – about one-tenth of the country’s GDP. China now produces 80 per cent of the world’s solar panels, 60 per cent of wind turbines and leads in exports of electric vehicles, batteries, heat accumulators and heat pumps, holding three out of four patents in the global clean energy sector.

However, as Valery Abramov notes, green energy cannot yet be regarded as a universally accessible alternative to hydrocarbons. “China produces affordable solar panels, but overall, installation and consumption of such energy remain within reach mainly for high-income countries,” he said.

Angelika Eremeyeva adds that a universal, environmentally friendly and economically efficient energy source simply has not yet been invented – though the search is ongoing. “It should be noted that not all types of renewable energy require major investment. For instance, biomass and biofuels from agricultural waste are both green and relatively inexpensive,” she emphasised.

Since 2020, Rospatent has registered about 3,000 inventions and models in Russia in the field of clean energy production, conversion and distribution. The transition to cleaner energy sources was also discussed at Russian Energy Week.

The main resources of the future

According to experts, the energy of the future will not only fuel technological progress but will also become an integral part of it. For example, specialists already envision Russia’s entire energy system as a unified digital platform that will incorporate and visualise all processes – from geological exploration to end use.

Yet, energy resources alone will not determine success in the technological and economic race. The key resource of the future is human capital. During Russian Energy Week, Russian Minister of Energy Sergey Tsivilev emphasised that the engineering profession lies at the heart of technological development and success. He cited examples from various fields – from medicine and agriculture to energy – demonstrating that modern technologies demand deep engineering expertise.

“Whatever you take up – it’s all engineering. That is why today, in this world, engineers are the ones who win. The engineering profession has a great future,” said Sergey Tsivilev.

Forecasts and risks

From an energy perspective, the countries of the Global South – in Central and South America, Africa, the Middle East and Asia – are currently the most interested in ensuring stable energy supply and security. Population growth and economic expansion, experts note, will account for 80 per cent of the increase in global electricity demand in the near future, with China contributing more than 45 per cent and India 15–18 per cent.

This presents not only potential but also risk. Energy systems must be prepared for growing demand; otherwise, shortages could affect not only technological development but also industry, transport and even household needs.

Many Global South nations remain dependent on energy imports, leaving them vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil and gas prices. Experts also note a clear energy imbalance: developed countries enjoy access to abundant energy reserves, while the Global South often faces limited access.

Developing energy markets within BRICS could help correct this imbalance. According to OPEC, BRICS countries control 35.2 per cent of the world’s proven oil reserves. The group includes net exporters (Russia, the UAE and Brazil) and major importers (India and China). This combination enables the alliance to transform the global energy imbalance into a competitive advantage.

Strengthening energy markets within the BRICS framework – along with expanding participation of BRICS partner countries, developing new payment and logistics systems, and exchanging green energy technologies – could provide a foundation for resolving global energy disparities and drive growth and rapid technological development across the Global South.

Photo: zhengzaishuru, metamorworks, Igor Borisenko, Crovik Media