Expert: Russia offers BRICS countries realistic vision for global energy transition

The only realistic scenario for the development of the global energy sector is a "rational technological choice", which involves retaining hydrocarbons as the primary energy source whilst simultaneously increasing the share of renewable sources. This was stated by Aleksey Kulapin, Director General of the Russian Energy Agency (REA) under the Russian Ministry of Energy, on the TV BRICS programme BRICSdialogue.

As Kulapin explained, in 2024 the REA presented its scenarios for the development of the global energy sector. The first scenario is called "business as usual", the second – "rational technological choice", and the third – "net zero".

"The most sensible scenario is the one with the telling title 'rational technological choice', in which hydrocarbons remain our key source of energy. The share of renewable energy sources is growing, which is, on the whole, logical and to be expected. At the same time, implementing this scenario makes it possible to achieve carbon neutrality," explained Kulapin.

According to REA estimates, the scenario of achieving full global carbon neutrality by 2050 (net zero) is unfeasible, as it would require annual investment of US$7–8 trillion. Furthermore, its implementation would require technologies that currently exist only as laboratory prototypes or concepts.

Kulapin noted that the member states have made climate neutrality commitments with different target dates. Brazil and South Africa are targeting 2050; Russia and China, 2060; whilst Iran and Egypt have joined the Paris Agreement under the United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change and are therefore targeting 2100.

At the same time, all BRICS countries support the concept of a Just Energy Transition. Its main principle is technological neutrality. In other words, each country must determine for itself which technologies will enable it to achieve climate neutrality. This position was endorsed at a ministerial meeting of the group’s member states in 2024.

"A Just Energy Transition, from our point of view, involves the use of transitional fuels, such as natural gas and biofuels – which are relevant for a number of the group’s member countries – as well as other types of fuel and technologies that are either low-emission or carbon-free sources of energy. This means equal access to all types of technology"

Aleksey Kulapin Director General of the Russian Energy Agency (REA) under the Russian Ministry of Energy

Joint investment projects are being implemented as part of the BRICS energy dialogue.

“Over the last few years, we have been actively cooperating with India and China in the development of energy infrastructure with regard to the transport of energy resources. We are collaborating on the construction of nuclear power stations and the development of other environmentally friendly forms of energy. As regards the tools that would enable a successful project in one country to be replicated in another, it is important to mention the common principles and approaches aimed at standardisation. [...] We are currently implementing such an approach as part of a Russian initiative to promote technologies in the fields of oil production, oil refining and petrochemicals. Voluntary standards are being developed for use at Russian enterprises, and we are inviting our BRICS colleagues to adopt these standards so that they may apply them as well. We have already had positive experience in this regard: to date, we have adopted more than 40 such documents with the United Arab Emirates,” said Kulapin.

In 2019, the BRICS Energy Research Cooperation Platform was established on Russia’s initiative. Its secretariat is based at the REA of the Russian Ministry of Energy. In Russia alone, the platform brings together over a hundred experts from academia, the energy sector and universities. Annual reviews of the energy sectors of various countries and thematic studies are published. Russia oversees two areas: technological cooperation and human resource development. According to the expert, the first study on human resource issues was published in 2023, and work is set to continue this year, taking into account new members of the group.

The BRICS Youth Energy Agency operates under the platform, where young experts draw up their own forecast for the development of the global energy sector each year. Also, on Russia’s initiative, a youth engineering championship is held, at which specialists from BRICS countries present their projects.

Work is also underway to develop women’s leadership in the energy sector across the group’s member countries – this initiative was launched by South Africa and supported by Russia.