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Brazil forecasts record growth in coffee production for 2026
Growth is driven by a positive two-year cycle, new areas coming into production and favourable weather conditions
Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) has announced forecasts of an 18 per cent increase in coffee production for the 2026 harvest compared to last season, reaching 66.7 million bags.
The Brazilian government’s official website reported that if this figure is realised, it will be the largest in the company’s historical record, surpassing the 2020 harvest of 63.08 million bags.
According to the agency’s second report on the 2026 coffee harvest, the total area dedicated to coffee cultivation is expected to increase by 3.9 per cent to 2.34 million hectares, with average national productivity rising to 34.4 bags per hectare.
This growth is attributed to the positive production cycle that occurs every two years (bienniality), as well as new regions entering the production phase and favourable climatic conditions. As for Arabica coffee, the company expects production of 45.8 million bags, an increase of 28 per cent, whilst Conilon coffee production is expected to reach 20.9 million bags, a slight increase of 0.8 per cent.
Forecasts point to production growth in the main states, with Minas Gerais leading the way with an estimated output of 33.4 million bags, an increase of 29.8 per cent, thanks to good rainfall distribution. In the state of Espirito Santo, the second-largest producer, growth of 3 per cent is expected, bringing production to 18 million bags. Significant growth is also anticipated in the states of Sao Paulo and Rondonia.
On the market front, Brazil exported 11.5 million bags of coffee (60 kg each) between January and April 2026, a 22.5 per cent decrease compared to the same period last year, due to lower domestic stocks. However, exports are expected to recover in the second half of the year as the new harvest begins.
In a related development, Brazil continues to strengthen its global agricultural presence, with the government announcing the opening of new export markets in Mexico and Nicaragua. The country has secured approval to export ornamental bird and turtle feed to Mexico, and shelled peanuts to Nicaragua.
It is worth noting that the Brazilian agricultural sector has succeeded in opening 616 new markets since the start of 2023, reflecting the fruit of joint efforts between the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock and the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
These developments in Brazil reflect a broader trend among BRICS countries and the Global South to strengthen and expand their agricultural and food exports.
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