Brazil to set historic coffee export record in 2026/27 season

Brazil may register its highest-ever coffee export volumes in the 2026/27 marketing year (July–June), with total shipments projected to approach 47 million 60kg bags amid expectations of a significantly larger harvest and renewed stock-building by importing countries.

According to Brasil 247, a partner of TV BRICS, current projections indicate exports could range between 45.5 million and 46.8 million bags in 2026/27, comfortably exceeding the estimated 42 million bags dispatched in 2025/26.

The anticipated increase is primarily linked to improved availability of Arabica beans. Export volumes of Arabica coffee are forecast at between 36.7 million and 37.8 million bags, up from 32.5 million in the current cycle. Shipments of canephora varieties, including conilon and robusta, are expected to range between 8.8 million and 9 million bags, slightly below the 9.5 million exported this season.

Production forecasts reinforce the strong export outlook. Brazil’s Arabica crop in 2026/27 is projected at between 46.5 million and 49 million bags, compared with 37.7 million in the previous harvest. Canephora output is estimated at between 24.6 million and 25.4 million bags, potentially lifting total national production to as much as 74.4 million bags.

Globally, coffee production for 2026/27 is forecast at around 188 million bags, while demand is expected to reach approximately 181 million, suggesting a relatively balanced market with scope for rebuilding inventories in key consumer countries following recent price volatility.